Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, April 23th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news and no major factual headlines from the Middle East. Stocks are showing early losses with the Dow down 190 points and the Nasdaq down 111 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (4.29%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Wednesday’s early pricing. Weakness in bonds late yesterday may have some lenders reflecting slightly higher pricing this morning, but it should be a modest increase.

3/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.29%

190

Dow

49,209

111

NASDAQ

24,545

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Neutral

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction went relatively well. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand for the securities showed an interest that was a tad better than other recent sales, but not overly strong. While the sale was for longer-term debt like mortgage rates are based on, the 1:00 PM ET results announcement didn’t move bonds enough to affect mortgage pricing. Therefore, we are considering the sale a non-factor for rates.

Medium

Positive

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment update was this morning’s only relevant economic release. The 8:30 AM ET report revealed 214,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s revised 208,000 initial filings and higher than the 211,000 that was expected. Rising claims are a sign of a softening employment sector, making last week’s number favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

This week’s calendar closes late tomorrow morning when the University of Michigan posts their revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for April at 10:00 AM ET. This data helps us measure consumer sentiment about their own financial situations and their willingness to spend. Forecasts have the index rising from the preliminary 47.6 reading from two weeks ago that was much lower than anticipated at that time. An increase would mean surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were earlier this month. Data like this is relevant because strengthening confidence usually means consumers are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic growth. Accordingly, the lower the reading, the better the news for rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.