Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, December 11th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, partly due to favorable economic news this morning. Stocks are mixed with the Dow extending its post-FOMC rally from yesterday by 267 points and the Nasdaq down 220 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (4.11%), which with yesterday’s afternoon rally should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point if compared to Wednesday’s early pricing.

9/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.11%

267

Dow

48,325

220

NASDAQ

23,433

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

This morning’s sole relevant economic release was last week’s unemployment update that showed new claims for jobless benefits spiked by 44,000. This brought the number of new claims to 236,000 last week after the previous week’s total was revised from 191,000 to 192,000 initial filings. The weekly jump was the largest since March 2020 and strongly supports the theory that the labor market is softening. As a sign of economic weakness, the update can be labeled good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Bonds were already trading in positive ground before this report was posted, but improved more after the 8:30 AM ET release.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We also have a 30-year Treasury Bond auction to watch today. Results of the sale will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for rates. A strong demand for the securities could help lead to an afternoon improvement in mortgage pricing. However, a lackluster sale may force an intraday increase to rates. Tuesday’s 10-year Note sale was uneventful, meaning this one could go either way.

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

Tomorrow doesn’t have any relevant economic data set for release, but there are a few Fed-member speeches scheduled for morning hours. Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us, so is the Fed’s mandatory quiet period. This means we will start getting plenty of these speaking engagements. Most are about mundane topics such as financial regulation or payment systems. However, some have topics listed that are related to monetary policy or economic outlook. Despite the fact we are not expecting any major headlines from tomorrow’s speeches, the markets always listen for a surprise and will react accordingly if it is said.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.