Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, April 24th

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly following contradicting geopolitical news and somewhat unfavorable economic data. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 169 points and the Nasdaq up 134 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.32%), which with yesterday’s late weakness should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. If you saw an upward revision late Thursday, you may see it increased slightly this morning. Most of the change in rates is a result of bond losses yesterday afternoon.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.32%

169

Dow

49,141

134

NASDAQ

24,572

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

This morning’s release of April’s revised Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan revealed surveyed consumers felt a little better about their own financial situations than previously thought. The revised index was announced at 49.8, up from the estimate of 47.6 that was released two weeks ago and higher than forecasts of 48.6. The increase means consumers feel better about their own finances and are likely to spend more. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this is bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

High

Neutral

Iran War Headlines

There were some headlines regarding the Iran war that gave confusing and conflicting information. First, there were comments made from related parties that peace talks could resume in Pakistan as early as today. That led to an early morning improvement in bonds and stocks with a drop in oil prices. Unfortunately, shortly after that happened, other comments indicated there were no official peace talks happening. This is when the early gains were reversed, leaving the bond market with a minor loss.

High

Unknown

Inflation News

Next week can be considered a split week with little scheduled the early days that is expected to affect mortgage rates. It starts with no economic data Monday and a moderately important consumer confidence reading Tuesday, in addition to a couple of shorter-term Treasury auctions. They will be followed by more middle of the road data early Wednesday. However, things change drastically Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC meeting adjourns. Then Thursday and Friday bring us some very important economic data, including a key inflation reading, the initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the first quarter of the year and the ISM manufacturing index. Unless something totally unexpected comes from the Middle East early in the week, we should see the most movement in rates the second half. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.